Treasury's par yield curve is the government's official daily reading of what it pays to borrow for 14 lengths of time, from 1 month to 30 years. The chart plots the latest curve against the same date a year earlier, and the tables add the month-ago values, the two spreads markets watch most and the yields on inflation-protected TIPS, which show how much inflation the market is pricing in. Bill yields term by term are on T-bill rates today, and the securities themselves are covered in the US Treasuries hub.
- Oct 30, 2026
- Oct 30, 2025
| Maturity | Yield | A month earlier | A year earlier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 4.06% | 4.02% | 4.05% |
| 6 weeks | 4.09% | 4.13% | 4.02% |
| 2 months | 4.16% | 4.16% | 4.04% |
| 3 months | 4.16% | 4.20% | 3.92% |
| 4 months | 4.18% | 4.29% | 3.87% |
| 6 months | 4.25% | 4.33% | 3.79% |
| 1 year | 4.36% | 4.54% | 3.70% |
| 2 years | 4.56% | 4.88% | 3.61% |
| 3 years | 4.65% | 5.00% | 3.61% |
| 5 years | 4.71% | 5.09% | 3.72% |
| 7 years | 4.80% | 5.19% | 3.90% |
| 10 years | 4.94% | 5.29% | 4.11% |
| 20 years | 5.34% | 5.68% | 4.64% |
| 30 years | 5.31% | 5.64% | 4.65% |
| 10-year minus 2-year | +0.38 pts | +0.41 pts | +0.50 pts |
| 10-year minus 3-month | +0.78 pts | +1.09 pts | +0.19 pts |
| Maturity | Real yield (TIPS) | Nominal yield | Implied inflation (nominal minus real) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 years | 2.25% | 4.71% | 2.46% |
| 7 years | 2.42% | 4.80% | 2.38% |
| 10 years | 2.60% | 4.94% | 2.34% |
| 20 years | 2.92% | 5.34% | 2.42% |
| 30 years | 3.08% | 5.31% | 2.23% |
What is a Treasury par yield?
A par yield is the coupon rate at which a new Treasury of that exact maturity would sell for exactly its face value, or par.
Treasury does not simply list the yields of whatever bonds exist. Each trading day its Office of Debt Management takes indicative bid-side quotes, obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at or near 3:30 PM, on the most recently auctioned bills in all seven bill terms, the 2-, 3-, 5-, 7- and 10-year notes and the 20- and 30-year bonds. It fits a curve through them with a monotone convex method, in use since December 6, 2021, and reads off 14 fixed points: 1, 1.5, 2, 3, 4 and 6 months and 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 years. Those readings are the constant maturity Treasury (CMT) yields. Three properties matter when you use them:
- They are bond-equivalent yields. Every point assumes semiannual interest and actual day counts on a 365- or 366-day year, even at 1 month. They are not APYs; Treasury's conversion is APY = (1 + yield ÷ 2)² − 1.
- They may not match a security you can buy. The 20-year CMT is the par yield of a theoretical new 20-year bond, and an older bond with the same time left and a different coupon can trade at a slightly different yield.
- They are floored at zero. If market prices imply negative yields, Treasury still uses those prices to fit the curve but publishes zero, consistent with its not accepting negative yields at nominal auctions.
At the short end the inputs are bill discount rates converted to bond-equivalent yields, the conversion set out in T-bill discount rate vs investment rate.
Worked example: Converting the October 30, 2026 curve to APYs
- 1-year: 4.36% par yield → (1 + 0.0436 ÷ 2)² − 1 = 4.41% APY
- 2-year: 4.56% → (1.0228)² − 1 = 4.61% APY
- 10-year: 4.94% → (1.0247)² − 1 = 5.00% APY
The conversion adds 0.05 to 0.06 point at these levels, enough to matter when a CD or savings account advertises an APY within a few hundredths of a Treasury yield.
How do you read the yield curve chart and tables?
Read the chart left to right as maturity lengthens, then use the tables for exact yields, past values, spreads and real yields.
- The chart. Maturities are evenly spaced rather than drawn to scale, so the step from 1 month to 1.5 months takes as much width as 20 years to 30 years. That stretches the short end and makes moves in bill yields look bigger. The solid line is the latest trading day; the dashed gray line is the same date a year earlier.
- The par yield table. One row per maturity, with the latest yield and the yields on the nearest trading day on or before the same date a month and a year earlier. Moves are in percentage points, and a basis point is 0.01 point.
- The spread rows. The 10-year minus 2-year and 10-year minus 3-month differences on the same three dates, marked as inverted when negative.
- The real yield table. TIPS yields at 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 years beside the nominal yield at the same maturity, with the difference labeled implied inflation.
A useful habit is to compare how far each end moved. Between October 1 and October 30, 2026, the 10-year yield fell 0.30 point, from 5.24% to 4.94%, while the 2-year fell 0.22 point, from 4.78% to 4.56%. The 10y-2y spread narrowed from +0.46 to +0.38 point, so the long end drove that month's change. Why each end moves is the subject of what moves Treasury yields.
What do normal, flat, inverted and humped yield curves look like?
A normal curve rises with maturity, a flat curve barely changes, an inverted curve falls, and a humped curve peaks somewhere between the two ends.
| Shape | What the chart shows | Typical spreads | What it often reflects |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | Yields rise from left to right | Both positive | Extra pay for lending longer, with short rates not expected to fall much |
| Flat | Little difference across maturities | Both near zero | Expected rate cuts roughly offsetting the extra pay for longer loans |
| Inverted | Short yields above long yields | One or both negative | Markets expecting short rates to fall, often while Fed policy is tight |
| Humped | A middle or long maturity above both ends | Either sign | Heavy supply or light demand at one part of the curve, or rates expected to rise and then fall |
On October 30, 2026, the curve was normal across most of its length, from 4.06% at 1 month through 4.56% at 2 years to 4.94% at 10 years, with a small hump at the long end: the 20-year yielded 5.34%, three hundredths of a point above the 30-year at 5.31%. Real curves often mix shapes like this, so the spreads describe a curve better than any single label. Treasury's own explanation of inversions is brief: investors' beliefs about the direction of rates, and the Fed's policy, can push short-term rates above long-term ones. What followed past inversions is covered in inverted yield curve explained.
What do the 10y-2y and 10y-3m spreads tell you?
Both measure the curve's slope: the 10y-2y compares two market-set yields, while the 10y-3m sets the 10-year against a bill rate anchored to current Fed policy.
On October 30, 2026, the 10-year par yield of 4.94% minus the 2-year's 4.56% gave +0.38 point, or 38 basis points; minus the 3-month's 4.16%, it gave +0.78 point. The 2-year yield moves with expectations for the Fed's policy rate over the next two years, so the 10y-2y spread shows whether the market expects rates to fall over that window. The 3-month yield sits close to the federal funds target range, 3.75% to 4.00% after the October 28, 2026 meeting, so the 10y-3m spread compares long-term yields with policy as it stands today.
The 10y-3m version drives the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's yield curve indicator. Its model turns the monthly average spread, with the 3-month rate on a bond-equivalent basis, into a probability of recession twelve months ahead. September 2026's average spread of about +0.96 point gave a 12.8% probability for September 2027 in the October 4, 2026 update. The New York Fed stresses that the level of the spread, not its change, carries the information, and its output is a statistical reading of one indicator, not a forecast by this site.
How do real yields and breakeven inflation work?
A real yield is what a TIPS bond pays above inflation, and breakeven inflation is the nominal Treasury yield minus the real yield at the same maturity.
Treasury builds a second, real curve from quotes on its most recently auctioned TIPS and publishes it at 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 years; the series starts on January 2, 2004. TIPS principal rises and falls with the consumer price index, so their yield is quoted after inflation. Subtracting it from the nominal yield gives the inflation rate at which the two would earn the same, which the Federal Reserve Board calls inflation compensation and markets call the breakeven.
Worked example: Breakeven inflation on October 30, 2026
- 5-year: 4.71% nominal − 2.25% real = 2.46 points
- 10-year: 4.94% − 2.60% = 2.34 points, matching the 10-year breakeven the St. Louis Fed published for that day
- 30-year: 5.31% − 3.08% = 2.23 points
If CPI inflation averages more than 2.34% a year over the next decade, a 10-year TIPS bought that day ends up ahead of a 10-year note; if it averages less, the note wins. Both comparisons ignore taxes.
Two cautions apply. The Federal Reserve Board describes breakevens as a gauge of investors' inflation expectations that may also be driven by risk premiums: Fed researchers split them into expected inflation, an inflation risk premium that nominal bond investors demand, and a liquidity premium because TIPS trade less easily than ordinary Treasuries. And breakevens look forward while CPI looks back: consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September 2026, well above every breakeven on the curve. How TIPS work, including when they beat ordinary Treasuries, is in TIPS explained.
What does the yield curve not tell you?
It does not tell you where rates are going: Treasury says the curve only shows past and current rates, and that attempts to forecast them are risky at best.
- The yield on the bond you would buy. CMTs are interpolated points, not quotes on a security. The newest notes, older notes, bills at auction and a broker's ask price can each differ from them.
- Your return after tax or inflation. Treasury interest is federally taxable and exempt from state and local income tax, and nominal yields say nothing about purchasing power; the real yield table does.
- Credit differences. Every point on the curve is the same borrower, so its shape reflects time and expectations, not differences in default risk.
- A timetable. A spread can stay negative or positive for long stretches, and the New York Fed model gives a probability, not a date.
- A seamless history. Points have been added over time, including the 2-month in October 2018, the 4-month in October 2022 and the 1.5-month in February 2025, and the fitting method changed in December 2021, so long comparisons need care.
Bill buyers can price a specific purchase with the Treasury bill calculator rather than reading a yield off the curve.
What are the risks of using the yield curve to pick a maturity?
The main risk is buying a long maturity for its higher yield and then needing to sell after rates rise, when its price will have fallen most.
- Interest-rate risk grows with maturity. A 10-year note bought at par at a 4.94% yield would lose about 7.5% of its market value if its yield rose 1 point at once; a 2-year note at 4.56% would lose about 1.9%. Held to maturity, either repays face value. The math is in why bond prices fall when rates rise.
- Reinvestment risk is the short end's version. A 1-month bill locks its yield for four weeks and then rolls at whatever the curve offers; short-term vs long-term Treasuries compares the two trade-offs.
- Inflation risk. A nominal bond falls behind if inflation runs above the breakeven. TIPS adjust for CPI inflation, but their prices still swing when real yields move.
- Signal risk. A spread that has preceded recessions is not a plan, and decisions built on one indicator can be wrong for long periods.
All of these securities are backed by the full faith and credit of the US government; what changes along the curve is how much time, and so how much rate and inflation exposure, you take on. Are Treasuries risk-free? works through each risk, and our editorial policy explains where the curve data comes from.