Bitcoin and gold are both held as stores of value with no issuer behind them and no income along the way, but the numbers behind them differ enormously. Gold's above-ground stock was worth about $28 trillion at the October 30, 2026 afternoon price, while all bitcoin in existence was worth about $1.55 trillion. This comparison uses the LBMA Gold Price PM series published by the World Gold Council (WGC), Coinbase's daily BTC-USD closes at midnight UTC and SPY prices from Nasdaq, all to October 30, 2026. Gold's record against cash and Treasury bills is covered in whether gold is a safe investment, and the crypto hub covers the rest of the asset class.
How do bitcoin and gold compare at a glance?
Gold is bigger, older and steadier; bitcoin is scarcer by design, trades around the clock and has swung more than four times as hard over the past decade.
| Bitcoin | Gold | |
|---|---|---|
| Supply | About 20.1 million coins, capped just under 21 million | About 222,600 tonnes above ground in mid-2026, with no cap |
| New supply | About 164,250 coins a year, roughly 0.8% | 3,815 tonnes mined in 2025, roughly 1.7% |
| Market value, October 30, 2026 | About $1.55 trillion | About $28 trillion |
| Volatility, 10 years | 67.8% a year | 16.0% a year |
| Worst fall from a peak, 10 years | −83.8%, 2017 to 2018 | −27.6%, 2026, not yet recovered |
| Monthly correlation with SPY, 10 years | 0.34 | 0.11 |
| When it trades | Every day, around the clock | Mainly weekdays |
| How it is held | Private keys, an exchange account or an ETF | Bars and coins in a vault or safe, or an ETF |
| Income | None | None |
| Top federal rate on long-term gains | 20%, taxed as property | 28%, taxed as a collectible |
Volatility here is the annualized standard deviation of daily price changes, using 365 days a year for bitcoin, which never stops trading, and 252 trading days for gold and SPY. Higher earners can owe the net investment income tax on top of either rate. Bitcoin and SPY have their own live price pages.
Which is scarcer, bitcoin or gold?
Bitcoin is, by its rules: new coins arrive on a fixed, shrinking schedule, while gold supply grows about 1.7% a year and can respond to higher prices.
Bitcoin's code caps the total at just under 21 million BTC (20,999,999.9769 BTC), and each new block currently pays a subsidy of 3.125 BTC per block, since block 840,000 on April 20, 2024. At about 144 blocks a day that comes to roughly 450 new coins daily, and the subsidy halves every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years. The halving guide covers that schedule, and what is bitcoin explains the design behind it.
Gold has no cap. The WGC estimates that about 222,600 tonnes had been mined by mid-2026 and that almost all of it still exists, as jewelry, bars, coins, central-bank reserves and industrial metal. Mines produced a record 3,815 tonnes in 2025 on the WGC's revised count. The difference that matters is response: a higher gold price can, over time, bring more mine output and recycled metal to market, while no price can change bitcoin's issuance.
Worked example: Stock-to-flow from the 2025 figures
Stock-to-flow divides the existing supply by one year's new supply.
- Gold: 220,700 tonnes above ground at the end of 2025 ÷ 3,815 tonnes mined in 2025 ≈ 58 years of output.
- Bitcoin: about 20.1 million coins ÷ 164,250 new coins a year ≈ 122 years of issuance.
- One year's new supply at October 30, 2026 prices: gold, 3,815 tonnes × 32,150.75 troy ounces a tonne × $3,913.25 ≈ $480 billion; bitcoin, 164,250 × $77,180.42 ≈ $12.7 billion.
A higher ratio means existing holdings dwarf new supply. It describes scarcity only and says nothing about demand, which is what sets both prices.
How much more volatile is bitcoin than gold?
Over the 10 years to October 30, 2026, bitcoin's annualized volatility was 67.8%, more than four times gold's 16.0% and well above SPY's 18.0%.
| Window ending October 30, 2026 | Bitcoin | Gold | SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 years | 67.8% | 16.0% | 18.0% |
| 5 years | 51.0% | 18.1% | 17.2% |
| 1 year | 44.1% | 27.0% | 12.8% |
| 2026 to date | 44.8% | 28.5% | 13.0% |
The gap has narrowed from both directions. Bitcoin's volatility within a calendar year fell from 94.7% in 2017 to 41.9% in 2025, while gold had its roughest stretch of the decade in 2026. In the year to October 30, gold moved 2% or more on 21.1% of trading days, against 5.7% over the full 10 years. Bitcoin moved 5% or more on 4.7% of days in the past year, against 12.4% over 10 years.
How deep have bitcoin and gold drawdowns been?
Bitcoin has twice fallen more than 75% since 2017; gold fell 70.3% from 1980 to 1999 and needed 28 years to regain its 1980 peak.
| Episode | Peak | Low | Fall | Back above the peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold, 1980 to 1999 | $850, Jan 21, 1980 | $252.80, Jul 20, 1999 | −70.3% | Jan 3, 2008 |
| Gold, 2011 to 2015 | $1,895, Sep 5, 2011 | $1,049.40, Dec 17, 2015 | −44.6% | Jul 24, 2020 |
| Gold, 2026 | $5,405, Jan 29, 2026 | $3,913.25, Oct 30, 2026 | −27.6% | Not by Oct 30, 2026 |
| Bitcoin, 2017 to 2018 | $19,650.01, Dec 16, 2017 | $3,183, Dec 15, 2018 | −83.8% | Nov 30, 2020 |
| Bitcoin, 2021 to 2022 | $67,554.84, Nov 8, 2021 | $15,760.14, Nov 21, 2022 | −76.7% | Mar 4, 2024 |
| Bitcoin, 2025 to 2026 | $124,720.09, Oct 6, 2025 | $58,523.93, Jun 30, 2026 | −53.1% | Not by Oct 30, 2026 |
Gold prices are the LBMA afternoon auction price in dollars per troy ounce; bitcoin prices are Coinbase daily closes. Bitcoin's falls have been deeper but shorter so far: both of its completed drawdowns since 2017 were recovered within three years of the peak, while gold needed nearly 28 years after 1980 and almost nine after 2011. The 2026 declines also overlapped, so holding both did not avoid a loss that year. On October 30, bitcoin was still 38.1% below its record and gold 27.6% below its own.
Gain needed to get back to the peak = peak price ÷ low price − 1
Worked example: What each recovery required
- Bitcoin after 2018: $19,650.01 ÷ $3,183 − 1 = a 517% gain.
- Gold after 1999: $850 ÷ $252.80 − 1 = a 236% gain.
- Bitcoin from its June 30, 2026 low: $124,720.09 ÷ $58,523.93 − 1 = a 113% gain.
- Gold from October 30, 2026: $5,405 ÷ $3,913.25 − 1 = a 38.1% gain.
Crypto market cycles puts bitcoin's booms and busts in sequence, and the bitcoin drawdowns study dates every decline in its history.
Do bitcoin and gold move with the stock market?
Bitcoin has moved with stocks more than gold has: over 10 years its monthly correlation with SPY was 0.34, against 0.11 for gold.
Correlation runs from −1, meaning two assets always move in opposite directions, through 0, meaning no relationship, to +1, meaning they always move together. Over the past five years bitcoin's correlation with SPY rose to 0.48 while gold's stayed low at 0.14, and bitcoin and gold were barely related to each other, at 0.09 over 10 years and 0.20 over five.
The months that matter most are the bad ones for stocks. SPY fell 5% or more in 13 of the 120 months from November 2016 to October 2026. Gold averaged +0.1% in those months and rose in six of them; bitcoin averaged −4.4% and rose in three. Neither offered dependable protection. In March 2026 SPY fell 5.2% and gold fell 11.8%, its worst month in the decade, while bitcoin rose 1.9%; in June 2022 bitcoin lost 37.1% as SPY lost 8.6%.
How have bitcoin and gold performed over the long run?
Over the 10 years to October 30, 2026, bitcoin returned about 60% a year against 11.9% for gold, but the ranking flips with the start date.
| Period ending October 30, 2026 | Bitcoin | Gold | SPY, price only |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | −28.7% | −2.0% | +11.2% |
| 3 years, per year | +30.8% | +25.1% | +22.1% |
| 5 years, per year | +4.5% | +17.2% | +10.5% |
| 10 years, per year | +60.1% | +11.9% | +13.5% |
| $10,000 from October 31, 2016 | $1,107,482 | $30,765 | $35,555 |
Calendar years show the leaders alternating. Bitcoin lost 64.2% in 2022 while gold ended 0.4% higher, and in 2025 gold gained 67.4% while bitcoin slipped 6.3%. The 5-year window opens nine days before bitcoin's November 2021 record close, so it carries the whole 2022 crash. The 10-year figure starts from a bitcoin price of $696.90, when its total value was a small fraction of today's, and growth from that base says little about what a $1.5 trillion asset can repeat. SPY figures leave out dividends, so they understate its total return.
The live table below is refreshed from daily closes, so its end date moves on. It shows bitcoin's latest close, its 1-year change, compound yearly returns over 3, 5 and 10 years where the history reaches that far, its deepest fall from a high and its volatility over the past year, which you can set against gold's figures above. If the price history cannot be loaded, the table is hidden and a short notice appears instead of estimated figures.
| Asset | Last close | 1 year | 3 years (per year) | 5 years (per year) | 10 years (per year) | Worst drop from a high | Volatility (1 year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | $78,688.00 | -28.8% | +31.1% | +4.5% | n/a | -83.2% (Dec 15, 2018) | 44.0% |
Our studies of bitcoin vs S&P 500 returns and bitcoin DCA vs lump sum show how much the entry date changed results.
Who holds bitcoin and gold, and how is each stored?
Gold is held as metal in a vault, a safe or a fund; bitcoin is held as control of private keys, by you, an exchange or an ETF's custodian.
Physical gold has to be stored, insured and eventually sold back to a dealer, and the CFTC warns that dealer spreads between buying and selling prices can often be 10% or more. Self-held bitcoin is only as safe as its private key and backup: lose both and the coins are gone, and anyone who copies them can move the coins irreversibly. Leaving coins on an exchange swaps that risk for the exchange's security and solvency, as custodial vs non-custodial wallets explains, and how to store crypto safely covers backups.
Exchange-traded products take the storage job off your hands for both. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the first US-traded gold ETF, began trading on November 18, 2004 and charges 0.40% a year. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) began trading in January 2024, charges a 0.25% sponsor fee and held $62.3 billion on October 30, 2026. Neither is registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, and each sells some of what it holds to pay its fee, so the metal or bitcoin behind every share shrinks a little each year. Bitcoin ETFs vs owning bitcoin compares the trade-offs.
Worked example: Ten years of fund fees on $50,000, prices unchanged
- GLD at 0.40% a year: $50,000 × 0.996 to the 10th power ≈ $48,036, so fees take about $1,964.
- IBIT at 0.25% a year: $50,000 × 0.9975 to the 10th power ≈ $48,764, so fees take about $1,236.
- Bitcoin in a personal wallet has no yearly fee, though a hardware wallet and secure backups have one-time costs.
Which trades more easily, bitcoin or gold?
Gold trades in far larger amounts, about $361 billion a day in 2025, while bitcoin trades every hour of every day.
The WGC puts London's over-the-counter market at more than $180 billion a day, with COMEX in New York the leading futures venue. The LBMA Gold Price benchmark is set in auctions at 10:30 and 15:00 London time on UK business days only. Bitcoin's spot market never closes, and since May 29, 2026 CME has run bitcoin futures around the clock, apart from short maintenance windows, as it now does for its 1-ounce gold futures. The ETFs most US investors use still trade only on weekdays, so a weekend move in bitcoin shows up as a gap when IBIT opens on Monday. Weekend crypto trading is also thinner, as how to read crypto charts shows with Coinbase volume data.
How are bitcoin and gold regulated and taxed?
Both are treated as commodities rather than securities in the US, but bitcoin's market rules are still being written and the two are taxed differently.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversees gold futures and bitcoin futures alike. The SEC's interpretation that took effect on March 23, 2026 names bitcoin as an example of a digital commodity, which is not in itself a security. A federal market-structure law for spot crypto trading is still missing: the CLARITY Act passed the House 294 to 134 on July 17, 2025, but a Senate cloture vote to take it up failed 49 to 50 on September 15, 2026; it had not become law as of November 2, 2026. The guide to US crypto regulation tracks the agencies and bills.
The IRS treats bitcoin as property, so gains on coins held more than a year are taxed at the regular long-term capital-gains rates of 0%, 15% or 20%. Gains on bullion, coins and gold ETFs that hold metal count as collectibles gains, taxed at up to 28%. Brokers now report crypto sales on Form 1099-DA, as the 1099-DA guide explains. These rules are revised from time to time, so a tax professional is the right check for a specific sale.
Governments hold both. The US Treasury owned about 8,133.5 tonnes of gold on September 30, 2026, carried on its books at a statutory $42.2222 an ounce but worth about $1.02 trillion at the October 30 afternoon price. A March 6, 2025 executive order set up a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve of bitcoin forfeited to the government and directs that those coins not be sold. Central banks and other official holders worldwide own about 39,000 tonnes of gold, 18% of the above-ground stock.
What are the risks of bitcoin and of gold?
Both can fall far and stay down for years, but bitcoin's risks are larger and more varied, and it could lose most or all of its value.
Bitcoin
- Price. Three falls of 53% to 84% since 2017, and no promise that any decline will be recovered.
- Custody. Lost keys, theft, scams and exchange failures can wipe out holdings; the crypto scams guide lists the common schemes.
- Rules. Market-structure law, tax rules and the treatment of exchanges are still changing.
- Behavior in selloffs. Its correlation with stocks has risen, so it has often fallen when stocks fell.
Gold
- Long losing stretches. Buyers at the 1980 peak waited 28 years to break even, and 2026 brought a 27.6% fall in nine months.
- No income. Every year in gold gives up the interest that cash or Treasury bills would have paid.
- Costs and markups. Storage, insurance and dealer spreads cut into returns on physical metal, as the gold safety guide details.
- Tax. The 28% collectibles rate applies to bullion and to ETFs that hold metal.
How much of either belongs in a portfolio is a sizing decision, covered in how much crypto to hold.